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Market Context for KXMLBWORSTRECORD
The two worst teams in baseball heading into 2026 are not hard to identify. Colorado and Washington rank among the bottom three in nearly every ranking, projection system, and sportsbook board available, consistently joined by at least one other club in that cellar.
The Rockies lost 119 games in 2025, one of the ugliest single seasons in the sport's history. Their rotation posted a 6.65 ERA, the highest ever recorded across a full MLB season. Prediction market Kalshi prices Colorado as an overwhelming favorite to finish with the worst record in baseball, with roughly 62 cents on the dollar backing that outcome. PECOTA projects them for 96 losses, third-worst in the league, behind only the Rockies and Cardinals.
Washington is a distant but legitimate second contender for the basement. The Nationals went 66-96 in 2025, gutted their front office mid-season, and barely made noise during the offseason. No starter projects to post an ERA below 4.00. FanGraphs gives them a 0.7 percent playoff probability.
Kalshi's market suggests roughly a 30-cent yes bid on Washington reaching a competitive win total, with a separate related market showing yes bids as high as 46 cents while no bids sit near 45 cents. Outfielder James Wood projects as a genuine contributor at 3.1 WAR, but he is essentially the entire offense.
Both teams carry lengthy World Series odds that reflect their longshot status heading into the season. The gap between them and the rest of baseball is stark.
ACHIEVEMENTS Contract Explained: Colorado Rockies Example — Worst Record in MLB, 2026 Regular Season
1. What You're Betting On
You're betting on whether the Colorado Rockies will finish with the worst overall record in Major League Baseball at the end of the 2026 regular season. If they have fewer wins than every other MLB team, this pays out Yes.
2. How It Resolves
Yes ($1.00): The official final regular-season standings show Colorado with the worst record in MLB (lowest win total / highest loss total across both leagues), as reported by any Source Agency.
No ($0.00): Any other team finishes with a worse record than Colorado, or Colorado ties for worst but isn't officially reported as the worst.
What counts:
The first official final result reported by a Source Agency — that's MLB (the governing league), ESPN, Fox Sports, The Wall Street Journal, or the Associated Press.
If the season is shortened or truncated but an official result is still reported, the contract resolves on that reported result. So if MLB cuts the season short (as in 2020) and declares final standings, those count.
What doesn't count:
Spring training or postseason records — this is regular season only.
Revisions to standings after expiration (e.g., if a forfeited game is later reversed).
The tied-record question: This is worth flagging. The rules have a provision for "multiple participants reported as the result." If Colorado and another team tie for the worst record and both are reported as having the worst record, Yes holders would receive $0.50 per share (split payout: $1 divided by 2). If MLB or the Source Agencies report a single team as having the worst record using a tiebreaker, only that team's contract resolves Yes at the full $1.00. This is a meaningful edge case — MLB doesn't have an official tiebreaker for "worst record," so a tie is plausible and could trigger the split-payout mechanism.
Who decides: MLB (the governing league), ESPN, Fox Sports, The Wall Street Journal, and the AP.
3. Key Dates & Times
Season timeline: The 2026 MLB regular season is expected to run roughly late March through late September (exact schedule TBD).
Expiration Date: The day after the regular season ends and the official final standings are reported. The contract can also resolve early per Rule 7.2 if the outcome becomes clear.
Expiration Time: 10:00 AM ET.
Last Trading Date/Time: Same as expiration.
Settlement: No later than the day after expiration (unless under review).
Postponement provisions: If the final games of the season are delayed (weather, etc.), the market stays open and resolves after either (1) the results are reported, or (2) two weeks after the originally scheduled end of the season — whichever comes first.
4. Quirks & Edge Cases
Tied worst record → split payout. As noted above, if two or more teams share the worst record, Yes holders for each get $1 divided by the number of tied teams, rounded down to the nearest cent. This is unusual compared to most binary contracts and could catch traders off guard. A $0.50 payout on a contract you bought at $0.60 is a loss, even though Colorado technically "had" the worst record.
Season cancellation → last-traded-price settlement. If the 2026 season is cancelled outright before completion, this doesn't just void — Yes holders receive the last traded price before cancellation, and No holders get $1 minus that. So if you bought Yes at $0.35 and the last trade before cancellation was $0.40, you'd receive $0.40. If Kalshi determines the last traded price isn't fair, their Outcome Review Committee makes a binding decision. If even that fails, the payout is $1 divided by the number of eligible team strikes remaining.
Disqualification before expiration flips results. If Colorado were somehow disqualified from competition (unprecedented in MLB, but the rules cover it), their contract resolves No. If that disqualification causes another team to be reported as having the worst record, that team's contract resolves Yes.
Withdrawal resolves No. If Colorado hypothetically withdrew from competition or folded, their contract resolves No — they can't "achieve" worst record if they're not playing.
Re-entry provision. If Colorado is eliminated from contention (hard to imagine for "worst record" mid-season, but if their contract resolved No early) and then circumstances change, Kalshi may create a new market for them. The original No resolution stands.
Revisions after expiration are ignored. If a game result is protested and overturned after the contract expires, changing the final standings, it doesn't matter. The contract is settled based on what was reported at 10:00 AM ET on expiration day.
First official result only. The contract resolves on the "first official final result." If standings are subsequently corrected, the first publication governs.
Position limit: $25,000 per strike, per member.
5. Who Can't Trade This
Employees of any Source Agency (MLB league office, ESPN, Fox Sports, WSJ, AP)
Anyone with material non-public information about the outcome (e.g., someone who knows about an unannounced team suspension that would affect standings)
Anyone who can influence the outcome (Colorado Rockies players, coaches, front office, or anyone in a position to affect game results)
6. Bottom Line for Traders
This is a full-season bet — you're watching 162 games of standings. The biggest gotcha is the tied-record split payout: if Colorado and another team both finish with the same worst record, you don't get a full dollar, you get $0.50. Price your position accordingly, especially late in the season if multiple bad teams are neck-and-neck. The other thing to know is the cancellation clause — if MLB somehow doesn't complete the season, you're settled at last traded price, not on the merits. Watch the standings, but also keep an eye on how many teams are competing for the basement.