Shai Gilgeous-Alexander claimed his second consecutive NBA MVP on May 18, edging Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic. His Kalshi Finals MVP contract is trading around 56 cents, implying a 56 percent chance he takes that trophy as well. With both the Thunder and Spurs still alive, the Western Conference Finals could set up a direct SGA-versus-Wembanyama collision for even bigger hardware.
What Happened
On May 18, Gilgeous-Alexander won the 2025-26 NBA MVP award, becoming just the 14th player in league history to win back-to-back MVPs and only the 16th to hold multiple regular-season trophies. He edged finalists Wembanyama and Jokic to claim the honor. Oklahoma City and San Antonio are both still alive in the 2026 playoffs, with the Western Conference Finals and NBA Finals yet to be decided.
The Market
The primary contract, KXNBAFINMVP-26-SGIL, is trading around 56 cents, implying a 56 percent chance SGA caps his dominant season with the Finals MVP award. Wembanyama's contract, KXNBAFINMVP-26-VWEM, sits around 22 cents, a smaller but credible probability given San Antonio's first postseason appearance since 2019. The Western Conference Finals MVP contract on SGA, KXNBAWFINMVP-26-SALE, trades around 66 cents, marking him as the strong favorite to dominate that round if OKC advances.
What To Watch
The Western Conference Finals bracket is the immediate price catalyst. An OKC-San Antonio matchup would likely drive volume on both Finals MVP contracts as the market prices a direct SGA-versus-Wembanyama showdown. A Thunder elimination would crater the SGA contracts and shift value toward Wembanyama or an Eastern Conference player. Expect these prices to move quickly with each game result over the coming week.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.