A taker stepped up on NO, landing on the NO side of the "Before Jun 1, 2026" outcome in the Strait of Hormuz traffic market — the NO side wins if the 7-day moving average of transit calls does NOT exceed 60 before June 1, 2026. The trade covered 7,630 NO contracts at 98¢ each, totaling $7,455. With no resting liquidity in the book, price held flat at 2¢ on the YES side, absorbing the trade without slippage. YES now sits at 2¢ bid, implying roughly a 2% probability the outcome resolves before the deadline.
📊 Last 200 trades: 200 trades over 11.5 hours (9:29 AM to 9:00 PM ET), NO volume leads $34,687 to $514, price holding near 2¢.
🐋 About Whale Watch
You do not have to watch Kalshi all day — we do. Prediction News Network tracks every big bet on the Kalshi prediction-market exchange in real time and flags the whales the moment they hit. Each one gets written up below so you can see exactly what was bet, at what price, and whether the market moved.
What counts as a whale? Sports & crypto: $25,000+ · Parlays: $8,000+ · Politics, culture, economy: $5,000+
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.