What are “Trump policy” prediction markets?

When people talk about Trump policy prediction markets, they mean contracts that pay out based on whether President Trump actually follows through on specific policies:

  • keeping or scrapping blanket tariffs

  • the scale of deportations

  • whether the U.S. leaves NATO or changes support for Ukraine

  • “tariff dividend” checks, new sanctions, and more

These markets live mostly on Polymarket (crypto, USDC-based) and Kalshi (CFTC-regulated event exchange).

Each contract pays $1 if the policy outcome happens and $0 if it doesn’t. The price in cents ≈ the market’s implied probability. So a Trump-tariff contract trading at 25¢ is the crowd saying there’s about a 25% chance that outcome occurs.

All of this changes constantly. The snapshots below are as of December 8, 2025.

1. Tariffs & trade: markets expect tariffs to stick

Tariffs are where Trump policy prediction markets are most developed.

Supreme Court tariff case

  • On Polymarket, “Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump’s tariffs?” has been trading around the 20–30% range, with recent odds near 29%.

  • A parallel Kalshi contract with nearly $1M in volume shows similarly low odds that the Court fully upholds Trump’s expanded tariff powers, with traders bracing for a 6–3 or 7–2 ruling against the administration.

What’s priced in?
Markets are signaling that Trump is unlikely to get a clean Supreme Court win on his emergency tariff authority. Traders increasingly expect the Court to curb, not expand, those powers.

Blanket 10% tariff and sector-specific tariffs

Polymarket runs several Trump-tariff questions:

  • “Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?” – trading around 4–5%

  • “Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by Dec 31?” – mid-teens odds

  • Other markets on China tariffs, EU tariff changes, and pharma tariffs also show meaningful but far-from-certain probabilities of new or tighter tariffs.

Meanwhile, macro research from Wharton, Yale, the St. Louis Fed and others points to sizable inflation and growth costs from the 2025 tariff wave.

Net message from markets:

  • High conviction that tariffs remain in place (tiny odds of blanket rollback).

  • Moderate odds of additional targeted tariffs (semiconductors, pharma, more China measures).

  • Low confidence in big consumer-friendly gestures like Trump-funded “tariff checks”: Kalshi’s market on Americans receiving tariff dividends in 2025 prices only about a 10% chance.

2. Immigration & deportations: markets price very aggressive enforcement

Immigration is another big cluster of Trump policy markets.

On Polymarket you’ll find contracts like:

  • “How many people will Trump deport in 2025?”

  • “Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?”

  • Follow-ons for 2026 deportation totals

Kalshi lists similar deportation-count markets, resolved off official ICE removal statistics.

Context from news and policy:

  • ICE is now targeting an arrest quota of 3,000 per day, with deportations on pace to approach 600,000 removals in 2025, far above late-Biden levels.

What’s priced in?

Prediction markets plus real-world data tell a consistent story: traders largely expect historically high deportation totals, not symbolic enforcement. Markets on extremely extreme numbers (like 750k+) trade below 50%, but anything at or above half a million removals per year is considered quite plausible.

3. Foreign policy, NATO, and Ukraine: low odds for the most dramatic moves

Trump’s rhetoric on NATO and Ukraine has spawned its own niche of prediction markets:

  • Polymarket lists contracts such as “Will Trump withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025?” and questions about Ukraine territorial concessions and U.S. weapons shipments. These typically trade at very low odds (1–5%) for the most dramatic scenarios like a full NATO withdrawal.

Earlier markets on promises such as “Trump ends the Ukraine war in his first 90 days” resolved with sub-1% odds and ultimately No, reflecting traders’ skepticism about quick grand bargains.

What’s priced in?

  • Markets don’t buy the most radical foreign-policy scenarios (NATO exit, instant peace deals).

  • They do assign some probability to messy, drawn-out diplomacy and pressure on allies, in line with reporting on Trump’s new national-security strategy emphasizing European nationalism and a faster end to the war.

4. “Meta” Trump markets: inaction, resignations, and political risk

Prediction markets also cover meta-questions about Trump’s behavior:

  • “Will Trump resign in 2025?” (tiny odds) and related “crisis politics” questions show traders largely discounting a sudden exit.

  • Bloomberg analysis of Polymarket trading in 2025 noted that wagering on Trump doing nothing on some promised initiatives actually produced equity-like returns—highlighting how often markets think the status quo will win out over dramatic action.

Priced-in baseline:
Traders expect lots of noise but selective follow-through—real tariffs and deportations, but a lower probability of the most extreme or fast-moving promises.

5. How to read “what’s priced in” (without gambling your rent)

A few quick guidelines for interpreting Trump policy prediction markets:

  • Price = crowd probability, not destiny.
    A 25% chance that the Supreme Court upholds Trump’s tariffs means “1 in 4 under similar conditions,” not “it will definitely fail.”

  • Watch clusters of markets.
    For tariffs, look at SCOTUS outcome, blanket-tariff removal, sector-specific tariffs, and tariff-check odds together to get a full picture of what policy path is priced in.

  • Track moves, not just levels.
    Tariff-case odds, for instance, dropped sharply after skeptical Supreme Court oral arguments—telling you that new information changed beliefs.

  • Remember the ethical and legal debates.
    Commentators and regulators worry that markets on deportations, wars, and elections could distort politics or erode public trust, and some states treat certain event markets as illegal gambling.

And, most important: none of this is investment, trading, or legal advice. These markets are volatile, jurisdiction-dependent, and risky; never stake money you can’t afford to lose.

In short, Trump policy prediction markets currently price in:

  • Sticky tariffs with low odds of a broad rollback, and meaningful risk of additional targeted trade measures

  • Exceptionally high immigration enforcement and deportations, far above prior baselines

  • Low probabilities for the most extreme foreign-policy moves, like leaving NATO or instantly ending the Ukraine war

They’re not crystal balls—but they are a live, incentive-driven snapshot of what thousands of traders think Trump’s second-term policy reality will look like.