US-Iran Nuclear Talks Stall — Kalshi Bettors Still See a Deal

- Over 20 hours of US-Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal on April 12, with JD Vance saying Iran refused American terms.

- Kalshi's contract on a US-Iran nuclear agreement before 2028 is trading around 73 cents, implying bettors see a deal as likely.

- A second round of negotiations is expected the week of April 20, with a ceasefire expiring April 22.

The first round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations stretched past 20 hours in Islamabad on April 11-12, mediated by Pakistan, but ended without an agreement. Vice President JD Vance said Iran chose "not to accept our terms" and demanded a "fundamental commitment" from Tehran not to develop nuclear weapons. A two-week ceasefire that began April 8 expires on April 22. AP reported an "in principle agreement" to extend it, though a US official said Washington had not formally agreed to an extension.

The near-term contract KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26MAY, covering a deal before late May, does not yet have active pricing to report. The broader KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP contract is trading around 63 cents. This suggests bettors see roughly a 63 percent chance of an agreement before September despite the first round's failure. The longest-dated contract, KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20, sits around 77 cents, reflecting strong conviction that a deal eventually gets done.

The ceasefire expires April 22, and a second round of talks is expected in Pakistan the same week — a signal that both sides may be seeking to maintain diplomatic momentum — according to two senior Pakistani officials cited by CNBC. If the ceasefire collapses and no new round is scheduled, expect the September contract to drop sharply. Conversely, any confirmed framework or Tehran signaling willingness to accept core US demands could push prices well above 70 cents fast.