Latest Kalshi Market Pricing
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Market Context for KXMCGREGORFIGHTNEXT
Conor McGregor has not competed since breaking his leg against Dustin Poirier in July 2021, and nearly five years later, fans are still waiting for his return.
A scheduled bout with Michael Chandler in June 2024 collapsed when McGregor withdrew citing injury, and no replacement date was ever set. Since then, his comeback opponent has remained a mystery.
McGregor posted on social media claiming he had accepted a fight against an unnamed opponent and was awaiting paperwork, but he deleted the post shortly after. UFC president Dana White quickly poured cold water on it, saying that if a deal were truly done, he would have announced it himself.
One name generating recent buzz is welterweight Carlos Prates, who holds a remarkable knockout rate of 78 percent across his career and has finished all but one of his UFC opponents inside the distance, his sole loss coming against Ian Machado Garry in April 2025. Prates recently defeated both Geoff Neal and former champion Leon Edwards by knockout. However, Prates confirmed on Instagram that he has received no contact from the UFC about McGregor, and questioned whether taking the fight would even be a smart move for the former champion.
Kalshi Market Pricing (2/25, 2:15 pm ET)
Prediction markets on Kalshi currently show Nate Diaz as a potential next opponent with a midpoint of around 17.5 cents on the dollar, while Michael Chandler has a YES bid of 26 cents, though Dana White has already ruled out a Chandler matchup.
Kalshi Contract Analysis: Conor McGregor's Next Opponent — (Ex: Michael Chandler)
1. What You're Betting On
You're betting that the first official fight Conor McGregor has (after the contract's issuance, roughly Aug 7, 2025) will be against Michael Chandler. If McGregor fights anyone else first, or doesn't fight at all before the contract expires (no later than ~Aug 2027), this bracket resolves No.
2. How It Resolves
Yes ($1.00): McGregor's next official bout after issuance is against Michael Chandler, the fight actually starts (referee begins the bout), and this is confirmed by any of the listed source agencies before expiration.
No ($0.00): McGregor fights someone other than Chandler first, or doesn't fight at all before expiration.
What counts as a "fight":
Must be officially sanctioned by a recognized athletic commission
Both fighters must make weight (or the bout proceeds despite a weight miss)
The fight must actually commence — fighters enter the cage/ring and the ref starts it
Exhibition and grappling matches only count if the contract specifically says so
What doesn't count:
A bout that's announced but cancelled before it happens
McGregor fighting someone else before fighting Chandler (even if Chandler was "next" on the schedule)
McGregor retiring or being suspended without competing
Who decides: Any one of the following — UFC (the sanctioning org), ESPN, The Athletic, NYT, AP, Bloomberg, Reuters, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, or NBC. A report from any single one is sufficient.
3. Key Dates & Times
Issuance: ~August 7, 2025 (the contract's start date)
Latest expiration date: Two years after issuance (~August 2027), but could be earlier
Expiration time: 10:00 AM ET
Last trading date/time: Same as expiration — you can trade right up until the contract resolves
Settlement: No later than the day after expiration
Early resolution: Yes. If McGregor fights Chandler (or fights someone else, eliminating this bracket), Kalshi will move expiration up per Rule 7.2 once the outcome is clear
4. Quirks & Edge Cases
Replacement fighters matter a lot. If McGregor is booked to fight Chandler but Chandler pulls out and McGregor fights a replacement opponent instead, the contract resolves based on who McGregor actually fought, not who was originally scheduled. Conversely, if McGregor was booked against someone else but that person drops out and Chandler steps in as a replacement, this bracket resolves Yes.
The fight must actually start. A weigh-in, a staredown, or a press conference don't count. The referee has to start the bout. If both fighters make it to the cage but one collapses before the ref says "go," it's unclear — Kalshi's contingency review would kick in.
Revisions are ignored. If a source agency later corrects a report (e.g., initially reports Chandler as the opponent, then retracts), only the information available at expiration time matters. Data corrections after expiration don't change the outcome.
"At most one Yes" structure. This is a multi-bracket market (Chandler, other named opponents, "No one/Does not compete," "Other fighter not listed"). Only one bracket can resolve Yes. If McGregor fights Chandler, every other bracket resolves No.
Date/event changes don't matter. If the McGregor-Chandler fight gets moved to a different card or date, it still counts — as long as it's McGregor's first bout after issuance and happens before the contract's expiration.
Position limit: $25,000 per strike, per member.
5. Who Can't Trade This
Employees of any source agency (UFC, ESPN, NYT, AP, Bloomberg, Reuters, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, NBC, The Athletic)
Anyone with material non-public information about the matchup (e.g., someone inside McGregor's management team or the UFC matchmaking office who knows a signed bout agreement hasn't been announced yet)
Anyone who can directly influence the outcome (the fighters themselves, their managers, UFC matchmakers)
6. Bottom Line for Traders
The key thing to watch is official bout announcements from the UFC and whether the fight actually happens — announcements alone don't resolve the contract; the fight has to start. The biggest risk specific to this market is the replacement fighter scenario: McGregor-Chandler has been rumored and rescheduled multiple times, and if Chandler pulls out last-minute and McGregor fights a replacement, this bracket loses even if Chandler was the "scheduled" opponent for months. Conversely, if you're betting No, remember that Chandler stepping in as a surprise replacement for someone else would flip this to Yes.