Latest Kalshi Market Pricing

To review the latest market pricing, visit Kalshi: kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpadminleave/who-will-leave-the-trump-administration/kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31

Market Context for KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE

Kash Patel was confirmed as FBI Director in February 2025 after being nominated by President Trump, but his tenure has been anything but quiet.

Since taking the role, Patel has overseen a dramatic reshuffling of bureau priorities, reassigning more than one in five FBI employees to immigration enforcement, pulling resources away from cybercrime, terrorism, and corruption cases.

The FBI Agents Association warned the changes are making Americans less safe, while critics have called the ongoing personnel purges unprecedented in modern bureau history.

Patel has also faced scrutiny over his use of government aircraft, including flights reportedly taken to visit his girlfriend, country singer Alexis Wilkins, with the bureau's jet having been flown to Nashville to see her at least five times. A whistleblower alleged the bureau's investigation into the assassination of Charlie Kirk was delayed by at least a day due to a plane shortage linked to the director's travel. Senator Dick Durbin has called for a formal investigation into the matter.

Kalshi Market Pricing (2/25, 11:25 am ET)

Prediction markets on Kalshi suggest it is a genuine possibility. His departure contract trades at a midpoint of 45.5 cents, reflecting meaningful market belief he may not finish out his term. For comparison, Kristi Noem trades slightly higher at 54 cents, making her the slightly more likely departure among tracked officials.

Kalshi Contract Analysis: EFFECTIVELEAVE (Official Departure from a Role)

1. What You're Betting On

You're betting on whether a specific person (or group of people) will leave, resign from, or retire from a specific role within a specific time period. Think: "Will Senator X resign before the end of 2026?" or "Will the CEO of Company Y leave their position in Q1 2027?" The exact person, role, departure type, and timeframe are filled in by Kalshi for each market listing.

2. How It Resolves

Pays Yes ($1.00) if: The specified person departs the specified role, in the specified manner, within the specified time period.

Pays No ($0.00) if: They don't.

The devil is in the details of three key variables Kalshi sets for each iteration:

The type of departure matters enormously:

  • "Leave" is the broadest — it covers any reason the person stops holding the role: resignation, firing, removal, impeachment, term expiration, recall, you name it. Even a term naturally ending counts.

  • "Resign from" is narrower — it requires a voluntary, affirmative act to quit before their term or tenure would naturally end. Declining to run for re-election does not count. Finishing out a full term does not count. However, forced resignations or resignations under duress do count, as long as they're formally documented as resignations.

  • "Retire from" is similar to resign — the person must characterize the departure as retirement (or it must be documented as such), and they must actually vacate the role early. Simply announcing "I'm retiring at the end of my term" and then serving out the full term does not count.

Which date triggers resolution also matters:

  • Effective date (the default): When the person officially stops holding the role. This is used unless the Exchange specifies otherwise.

  • Announcement date: When the departure is publicly announced — even if they don't actually leave for months.

  • Resignation submission date: When the formal paperwork is submitted, regardless of public announcement or effective date.

  • Actual departure date: When they physically/functionally vacate the role.

What explicitly does NOT count:

  • Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals

  • Announcing you won't seek re-election (for "resign" or "retire" contracts)

  • Completing a full term and leaving on schedule (for "resign" or "retire" contracts — e.g., a Senator's term expiring on January 3)

  • Announcing intent to retire at end of term, unless they actually leave early

What about death? If the person dies while holding the role, Kalshi may resolve all contracts on that person to the last fair trading price — essentially splitting the difference rather than picking Yes or No.

What if they leave and come back? The contract may settle based on the initial departure.

Who decides: A long hierarchical list of Source Agencies, starting with the organization where the role is held, then the person themselves, then official government records, then a cascade of major news outlets (White House, NYT, AP, Bloomberg, Reuters, Washington Post, WSJ, FT, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNBC, Politico, ABC News Australia, Deutsche Welle, BBC News). Higher sources in the hierarchy take precedence.

3. Key Dates & Times

  • Last Trading Date: End of the specified time period (or the Expiration Date), with trading closing at 11:59 PM ET unless otherwise noted.

  • Expiration Date: One week after the end of the time period (giving Kalshi a buffer to confirm the outcome), unless otherwise specified or resolved early.

  • Expiration Time: 10:00 AM ET.

  • Settlement: No later than the day after expiration, unless under review.

  • Early Resolution: Yes — if the departure clearly happens, the contract can resolve early under Rule 7.2.

Key gap to understand: You can typically trade until 11:59 PM ET on the last trading date, but the contract doesn't officially expire until 10:00 AM ET up to a week later. This buffer exists so Kalshi can confirm the outcome from official sources.

4. Quirks & Edge Cases

  • "Resign" and "Retire" contracts are much harder to hit Yes than "Leave" contracts. This is the single most important structural distinction. A "leave" contract pays out if the person departs for any reason, including their term simply ending. A "resign" contract requires an affirmative act to quit early. If you're trading a "resign" contract on a politician, their term naturally expiring is a No, not a Yes.

  • The placeholder system. This is a template contract — <person>, <role>, <time period>, and <leave/resign from/retire from> are all filled in per market. Always check the specific market listing to see what's been filled in. The rules you're reading are the general framework.

  • "Forced resignations" still count as resignations. If someone is pressured to resign and they formally submit a resignation, it counts. The voluntariness of the act doesn't matter as long as the paperwork says "resignation."

  • AND/OR logic for groups. If the contract specifies multiple people with AND logic, all of them must leave. With OR logic, any one suffices. Check which applies.

  • Name changes don't create a new person. If someone changes their name or title, they're still the same person for contract purposes.

  • If the role ceases to exist (e.g., a department is abolished), the contract may resolve No — you can't leave a role that no longer exists.

  • The "leave and return" scenario. If someone steps down and then gets reappointed, Kalshi may settle on the initial departure. This could matter for something like a Cabinet shake-up where someone is moved around.

  • Revisions are ignored. If a source later corrects its reporting about when someone left, the correction doesn't change the contract outcome after expiration.

  • Hierarchical source agencies. The organization itself is the top source, then the person, then government records, then major media. If the organization says one thing and CNN says another, the organization wins.

  • Position Accountability Level: $25,000 per strike, per member.

5. Who Can't Trade This

  • Employees of the Source Agencies (which is a very long list — includes staff at the relevant organization, government record-keepers, and employees of all 20+ listed news outlets)

  • The person who is the subject of the contract (or anyone with inside knowledge of their plans)

  • Anyone with material non-public information about the departure

  • Anyone who can influence whether the departure happens

6. Bottom Line for Traders

Before you trade, check three things on the specific market listing: (1) Is it "leave," "resign," or "retire"? (2) Which date triggers resolution — announcement, submission, effective, or actual departure? (3) What's the time period? Getting any of these wrong will lead to a bad trade. The most common trap: betting Yes on a "resign" contract for a politician whose term is about to expire — a term ending naturally is not a resignation, and you'll lose. Also note the death provision: if the person dies in office, Kalshi settles at the last fair price rather than a clean Yes/No, so extreme-odds contracts carry unusual tail risk there.