An original studio album (LP or EP) with new compositions

New singles, unreleased tracks, or collaborations featuring new material

A version of an existing album re-recorded in a new language (e.g., a Spanish-language version of an English album would count)

Posthumous releases count if attributed to the artist (not relevant here, but part of the rules)

It only needs to be available in any one Spotify market globally — a region-limited or staggered rollout still qualifies the moment it's live anywhere

Re-recordings of existing material (e.g., a "Taylor's Version"-style re-release)

Remasters, radio edits, clean/explicit versions of the same tracks

Remixes, live versions, acoustic versions, instrumentals, demos, alternative takes

"Artist version"-style releases or deluxe editions containing only previously available material

An old album that was on other platforms but is uploaded to Spotify for the first time in 2026 — if it was already widely publicly available before 2026, it doesn't count

Podcasts, audiobooks, spoken-word content, interviews, ambient sound, or promotional voice messages — even if they appear on her Spotify profile

Cosmetic changes like new artwork, title tweaks, or re-uploads of the same audio

Time period: 2026 (January 1 – December 31, inclusive)

Last Trading Date/Time: Same as expiration

Expiration Date: Up to one week after December 31, 2026 (~January 7, 2027), giving Kalshi a buffer to confirm

Expiration Time: 10:00 AM ET

Settlement: No later than the day after expiration

Early Resolution: Yes — if she drops an album mid-year that clearly qualifies, the contract can resolve early under Rule 7.2

Spotify metadata dates can't be gamed. If an album appears on Spotify on, say, January 3, 2027, but the metadata is backdated to December 30, 2026, it does not count. The rules explicitly state that the "effective release time" is the first verified moment of public availability to users on Spotify, regardless of what the displayed date says. The reverse is also true — an album can't be disqualified by a misleading metadata date.

One language = one release, but translation = new. If she releases an album in English and then a Spanish version, the Spanish version counts as a separate new album. However, releasing the same album in two languages counts as one release if it's substantially the same musical composition.

Taken down? Still counts. If the album is released on Spotify during 2026 and then pulled (label dispute, sample clearance issue, etc.), it still qualifies as long as it was verifiably public at any point during the time period.

"Eternal Sunshine" deluxe won't cut it. If Ariana releases a deluxe edition of her 2024 album Eternal Sunshine with only bonus tracks that are re-recordings, remixes, or acoustic versions, that's a No. It would only count if the deluxe includes genuinely new, original compositions and is itself structured as a new album — and even then, this would likely trigger a Kalshi review.

EPs count. The rules explicitly say a new album "may take the form of an LP or EP." So even a short 4-5 track EP of original material would resolve this Yes.

Features and collaborations. If Ariana is a featured artist on someone else's album, that likely doesn't count — it needs to appear under her official discography. But a collaboration album where she's a primary artist would qualify.

Spotify outage contingency. If Spotify data is unavailable by expiration due to a known technical outage, Kalshi may extend the expiration date.

If no data is available at all by expiration, all strikes resolve No.

Revisions to Spotify's catalog after expiration are ignored.

Position Accountability Level: $25,000 per strike, per member.

Employees of Spotify (the Source Agency)

Anyone with material non-public information about Ariana Grande's release plans (e.g., label insiders, her management team, producers working on unreleased material)

Anyone who can influence the outcome (e.g., someone at her label who controls release scheduling)