Latest Kalshi Market Pricing
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Market Context for KXCITRINI
A sweeping dystopian scenario imagining a hypothetical economic plunge, published by James van Geelen, the 33-year-old founder of Citrini Research, sent shockwaves through financial markets when it circulated recently.
The report imagines a world where AI-driven white-collar job losses trigger a deflationary spiral, pushing unemployment past 10% and wiping out 57% of the S&P 500 by late 2027.
IBM suffered its worst single-day stock drop in two decades, falling over 13%, while CrowdStrike shed 10% and Datadog declined 11%, with other companies including Workday, DoorDash, American Express, KKR, and Blackstone each falling at least 6%.
Not everyone is convinced. Economist Claudia Sahm argued that job losses of that magnitude would almost certainly force a strong policy response. A University of Toronto economics professor dismissed the report entirely, calling it disconnected from how economies actually function. A venture capital partner published a direct rebuttal arguing that rapid AI progress does not inevitably end in economic collapse.
Kalshi Market Pricing (2/25, 11:50 am ET)
On Kalshi, the probability that the full Citrini scenario materializes before July 2028 sits at just 10.5 cents on the dollar. NO volume towers over YES volume by a ratio of roughly seven to one, reflecting widespread doubt that all the required conditions, including unemployment above 10%, a 30% S&P 500 decline, a 10% decline in home values across major cities, labor's share of GDI falling below 50%, and negative CPI inflation, will simultaneously occur. History suggests the scenario is unlikely, yet the market's sharp selloff made clear that investors took the alarm seriously nonetheless.
Kalshi Contract Analysis: Economic Crisis Combo — "At Least 3 of 5" Macro Indicators
1. What You're Betting On
You're betting on whether the US economy will get hit hard enough that at least 3 out of 5 specific economic distress signals fire before July 2028. Think of it as a "macro crisis index" — no single bad number triggers it, but if enough things go wrong simultaneously, it pays out.
2. How It Resolves
Pays Yes ($1.00) if: Three or more of the following five outcomes resolve Yes under their respective governing rules before July 2028.
Pays No ($0.00) if: Fewer than three of the five outcomes occur.
Here are the five individual outcomes and what each requires:
# | Outcome | What Triggers It | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Unemployment rate exceeds 10% | Any monthly BLS employment report shows U-3 unemployment > 10% | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
2 | S&P 500 drops >30% from issuance close | The S&P 500 closes more than 30% below its closing level on the date the contract was listed | Likely FRED / major financial data |
3 | Zillow Home Values drop >10% YoY | The Zillow Home Value Index for any one of NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, or Phoenix shows a year-over-year decline exceeding 10% | Zillow |
4 | Labor share of GDI falls below 50% | The first-release value of labor share of gross domestic income for any quarter drops below 50% | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
5 | CPI-U goes negative YoY | Any monthly CPI-U release (all items, not seasonally adjusted) shows a year-over-year change below 0% — i.e., outright deflation | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
The counting mechanism: Each outcome is independently evaluated under its own governing rule. Kalshi tallies how many resolved Yes. If that count is ≥ 3, the contract pays Yes.
What doesn't count:
Revised data. Each outcome is judged on its initial/first release. If BLS later revises unemployment from 10.1% down to 9.8%, the original 10.1% reading is what matters.
Canceled or postponed data releases. If a data release is canceled or pushed beyond July 2028, that outcome is excluded from the count entirely — it doesn't count as a No, it's simply removed from consideration.
3. Key Dates & Times
Time period: Before July 2028 (this likely means before July 1, 2028, since "before" excludes the endpoint unless otherwise stated)
Expiration Date: Up to one month after the end of the time period — so potentially as late as ~August 1, 2028 — giving Kalshi time to confirm all data releases
Expiration Time: 10:00 AM ET
Last Trading Date/Time: Same as expiration
Settlement: No later than the day after expiration
Early Resolution: Yes — if three outcomes clearly fire before the time period ends, the contract can resolve early under Rule 7.2
4. Quirks & Edge Cases
"First release" matters for labor share of GDI. The contract explicitly says "first-release value." BEA regularly revises GDP/GDI components. If the first release shows labor share at 49.8% and a revision bumps it to 50.3%, the contract counts the 49.8%. This is a critical detail — first releases tend to be noisier.
"Any of" six cities for housing. Only one city needs to breach the -10% YoY threshold on the Zillow Home Value Index. San Francisco and Phoenix historically have more volatile housing markets, so those are the most likely trigger cities. You don't need all six to crash.
The S&P 500 baseline is locked at issuance. The 30% decline is measured from the closing price on the day the contract was listed, not from any subsequent high. If the S&P rallies 20% after issuance and then falls 30% from the issuance level, it counts — even though from the post-issuance peak it might be a ~42% decline. Conversely, a 35% drop from a post-issuance high that still leaves prices above the 30%-from-issuance threshold does not count. Check the specific market listing for the exact reference price.
CPI-U: not seasonally adjusted. This is specified explicitly. The not-seasonally-adjusted series is more volatile month-to-month. A single month of YoY deflation in any release is enough.
"Exceeds" vs. "more than" vs. "below" — precision matters. Unemployment must exceed 10% (strictly greater than — 10.0% flat likely doesn't count). S&P must decline more than 30%. Housing must decline more than 10%. Labor share must fall below 50%. CPI YoY must fall below 0%. In every case, hitting the threshold exactly is probably not enough.
Governing rules are inherited. Each of the five outcomes is resolved under its own Kalshi rule certification (e.g., an unemployment contract rule, a home price contract rule). The specific resolution mechanics — including exact data series identifiers, revision policies, and source agency hierarchies — come from those underlying rules. If you're trading seriously, you'd want to read those individual rules too.
Canceled/postponed data exclusion could matter. If a government shutdown delays BLS or BEA releases past July 2028, those outcomes drop out of the count entirely. In a scenario where only 3 of the 5 are even measurable, you'd need all 3 to fire.
Correlation makes this interesting. These five indicators are not independent — a severe recession would likely trigger several simultaneously (high unemployment, stock crash, and possibly deflation). But a slow-burn housing correction alone wouldn't be enough. The contract is essentially pricing the probability of a genuine multi-front economic crisis.
Revisions after expiration are ignored across the board.
Position Accountability Level: $25,000 per strike, per member.
5. Who Can't Trade This
Employees of BLS, BEA, Zillow, or FRED (the Source Agencies)
Anyone with material non-public information about any of the five underlying data points
Anyone who can influence the outcomes (e.g., senior Fed or Treasury officials, though they'd likely be restricted under other rules too)
Standard Kalshi prohibitions on insider trading apply
Given that the Source Agencies span multiple government statistical agencies and a private company (Zillow), the exclusion list is broader than a typical single-source contract.
6. Bottom Line for Traders
This is a "macro catastrophe bundle" — you need at least 3 of 5 severe economic outcomes to fire, which essentially requires a deep, broad-based recession or crisis. The outcomes are correlated enough that if two happen, a third becomes much more likely, which creates a nonlinear payoff profile. Watch the first-release caveat on GDI labor share and the not-seasonally-adjusted specification on CPI — these are the two outcomes most likely to be misunderstood. Also verify the exact S&P 500 reference price locked at issuance, since your mental math on "30% decline" is only as good as your baseline. If a government data disruption (shutdown, delayed releases) pushes outcomes past July 2028, those indicators drop out entirely, making it harder to reach the count of 3.