Latest Kalshi Market Pricing

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Market Context for KXALIENS-27

The question of whether the U.S. government will officially confirm extraterrestrial life before 2027 is gaining serious attention, with prediction markets placing the odds at roughly one in four.

President Trump recently directed the Secretary of War and other relevant departments and agencies to identify and release classified government files related to UFOs, unidentified aerial phenomena, and extraterrestrial life. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed his department is actively working on this, though no timeline has been set.

Experts warn most released documents will likely be heavily redacted to protect sensitive military surveillance capabilities. Despite the political momentum, the scientific and defense communities remain skeptical. The Pentagon's own UAP office reported in 2024 that hundreds of sightings had been reviewed, with zero evidence pointing to extraterrestrial origins.

Sean Kirkpatrick, the first director of the Pentagon's UAP investigation office, echoed this skepticism, indicating that those expecting evidence of alien life here on Earth are likely to be disappointed. The office's first director predicts public disappointment, expecting accusations of continued cover-up regardless of what gets released.

Former President Obama briefly fueled public excitement by calling aliens "real" before clarifying he meant life probably exists somewhere in the vast universe, not that Earth had been visited.

Kalshi Market Pricing (2/25, 11:30 am ET)

On Kalshi prediction markets, the contract asking whether the U.S. will definitively confirm alien existence before 2027 currently sits around 22 cents per share, implying approximately a 22% probability. A separate contract on whether Trump will release new UFO files is priced far higher, around 78%, suggesting file releases are expected but confirmation of alien life remains unlikely.

Kalshi Contract Analysis: Government Alien Disclosure

1. What You're Betting On

You're betting on whether a senior US government official will publicly and definitively state that extraterrestrial life or technology exists. This isn't about UFO hearings, leaked memos, or speculation — it requires an official, on-the-record declaration from a specific set of high-ranking officials.

2. How It Resolves

Pays Yes ($1.00) if: The President, any Cabinet member, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency makes a definitive statement that extraterrestrial life or technology exists. The statement must be made in an official capacity (not a personal opinion on a podcast or in a book) and must come after the contract was listed and before the expiration date.

Pays No ($0.00) if: No such definitive official statement is made before expiration.

What counts as "the Cabinet": The rules define this broadly — not just the 15 traditional Cabinet heads, but also the EPA Administrator, White House Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, CIA Director, OMB Director, US Trade Representative, UN Ambassador, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, SBA Administrator, and Director of OSTP. That's roughly 25+ officials.

What doesn't count:

  • Statements made in a private capacity (memoirs, personal social media musings, off-the-record comments)

  • Hedged or speculative language — the rules say "definitively states," so something like "we can't rule out the possibility" likely wouldn't qualify

  • Statements by Congress members, former officials, or anyone outside the defined set

  • Revisions or retractions made after expiration

Who decides: The Source Agency is the Executive Branch itself — Kalshi looks at official releases. Kalshi ultimately has discretion to review the outcome under its rules.

3. Key Dates & Times

  • Expiration Date: Specified by the Exchange per contract iteration (shown as a placeholder <Date> in the rules — check the specific market listing for the actual date)

  • Expiration Time: 10:00 AM ET

  • Last Trading Date/Time: Same as expiration — you can trade right up until 10:00 AM ET on expiration day

  • Settlement: No later than the day after expiration, unless under review

  • Early Resolution: Yes — if a qualifying statement is made before the expiration date, the contract can resolve early per Rule 7.2

4. Quirks & Edge Cases

  • "Definitively states" is doing a lot of work. This is the most important phrase in the contract. A Congressional hearing where a Pentagon official says "we've recovered non-human technology" might not count if it's hedged or ambiguous. Kalshi has discretion to judge whether a statement is "definitive."

  • Official vs. private capacity matters. If the CIA Director writes a personal memoir saying aliens are real, that likely doesn't count. The statement must be an official Executive Branch release. However, if the same person says it at a press briefing in their role as CIA Director, it would count.

  • The official list is frozen at issuance. The Cabinet composition that counts is defined as of the contract's issuance date. If a new Cabinet position is created afterward, that person likely wouldn't qualify.

  • Federal agencies are included too. The payout criterion includes "any US federal agency," which is much broader than just the named officials. An official NASA press release or a formal DoD announcement could qualify — it doesn't have to come from a named individual.

  • Revisions are ignored. If someone makes a definitive statement and the White House later walks it back or retracts it after expiration, the contract still resolves based on what was on the record at expiration time.

  • Multiple date iterations possible. Kalshi can list different versions of this contract with different expiration dates. Make sure you know which one you're trading.

  • Position Accountability Level: $25,000 per strike, per member.

5. Who Can't Trade This

  • Employees of the Executive Branch of the United States (the Source Agency)

  • Anyone with material non-public information about a pending government disclosure

  • Anyone who can directly influence whether such a statement is made

This is a notably broad exclusion — it effectively bars a large swath of federal government employees.

6. Bottom Line for Traders

This contract hinges entirely on the word "definitively." The US government has been increasingly open about UAPs/UFOs, but most statements to date have been carefully hedged. Watch for official press releases, formal agency statements, or presidential remarks — not Congressional testimony or leaked documents. The broadness of qualifying officials (25+ named roles plus all federal agencies) gives this more paths to Yes than you might initially think, but the "definitive" bar is high. If a qualifying statement drops, expect early resolution — you won't have to wait for expiration.