THE TOP STORY

⚽ World Cup Semifinal: England vs Argentina - 3:00 PM ET

England and Argentina meet Wednesday (in Atlanta for a spot in Sunday's final against Spain, renewing a rivalry that spans 1966, the Hand of God, and the Falklands. England is one win from its first final in 60 years; Argentina is chasing a repeat.

The market has this near a coin flip with England at 53%, but Argentina's path here says the champs are running on fumes:

  • Knockout grind: extra time vs. Cape Verde (R32), a 2-0 comeback vs. Egypt rescued in the 79th minute, extra time again vs. Switzerland.

  • Schedule strength: England has faced tougher opponents by Elo, with Kane and Bellingham both in form.

Fresher legs and a full-strength attack at even money is the value side.

Best trade: Buy England "Yes" at 54¢

Trade the Game

OPEN YOUR HOME
📱 What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?

Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported July 14 that OpenAI's first hardware product will be a mobile, screen-free smart speaker — a home AI companion running GPT-Live, designed with Ive's LoveFrom. Kalshi's market pays on the device category of the first announced product.

Here's the gap: a smart speaker isn't even a listed strike — the reported answer sits outside every contract on the board. Yet the categories the reporting rules out still have No shares sitting below $1:

  • Watch: No at 98¢, ~189 contracts available

  • Ring: No at 96¢

  • Phone: No at 95¢

  • Clip-on: No at 94¢

One caveat: category lines (computer vs. tablet, multi-category devices) resolve at Kalshi's discretion under the rules — stick to the clear-cut wearables.

Best trades: Buy No — Watch 98¢, Ring 96¢, Phone 95¢

Trade the Market

DAYLIGHT SAVED
☀️ Will Daylight Saving Time become permanent?

The House voted 308-117 Tuesday to make daylight saving time permanent, sending the Sunshine Protection Act to the Senate. The White House said advisers would recommend the president sign it.

The “Before Jan 1, 2027” leg has climbed from single digits to 23¢ over the past week, but it still trades at barely half the “Before Jan 1, 2028” contract (44¢) — a wide gap given the historical bottleneck just cleared:

  • Precedent: The Senate passed a similar bill four years ago; it was the House that stalled it.

  • White House: Signature is believed to be pre-committed if it reaches Trump’s desk.

Only the Senate calendar stands between here and enactment before year-end.

Best trade: "Before Jan 1, 2027" Yes at 23¢

Trade the Market

EVERYTHING ELSE
🐙 DeepSeek IPO 🍎 NYC 💵 PayPal

DeepSeek IPO announcement in 2026: "Yes" — 38¢

  • The news: Bloomberg reported July 14 that DeepSeek — the Hangzhou AI lab behind last year's efficiency breakthrough — has begun IPO preparations and may file as soon as this year, working with accounting and banking advisors to finish financ

  • ials by December.

  • The mispricing: At 38¢, the market underweights momentum: DeepSeek is simultaneously raising ~$1.5B at a $71B pre-money valuation, up from $50B just weeks after closing a record $7B round with Tencent and CATL. The main risk is slippage into early 2027.

  • The book: Thin — only 500 contracts offered at 38¢ before asks jump to 98¢, so size accordingly.

Another state data center moratorium in 2026: "No" — ~50¢

  • The news: New York on Tuesday became the first state to enact a statewide data center moratorium — Gov. Hochul's executive order pauses hyperscale permits for up to a year. Kalshi's market asks whether any other state fully enacts one before Jan 1, 2027; Yes last traded 56¢.

  • The mispricing: That's rich for a 5.5-month window with a strict enactment bar. The only other moratorium to clear a legislature (Maine) was vetoed in April, proposals in a dozen-plus states have stalled, and Whitmer, Newsom, and Trump are all leaning against state AI restrictions.

PayPal acquired in 2026: "Yes" — 68¢

  • The news: CNBC confirmed July 15 that Stripe and Advent International made a $60.50/share cash offer for PayPal — $53.4 billion, a 28% premium — sending the stock up ~15%. PayPal's board meets as soon as July 20 to discuss.

  • The mispricing: Yes jumped 56 points to 68¢, but that still implies ~1-in-3 failure odds on a fully funded bid: ~$50B in committed bank financing plus $17B in equity from Stripe, Advent, and Block. PayPal is a motivated seller — failed turnarounds, a CEO swap, weak 2026 guidance — and the buyers want talks progressed within weeks.

  • The risk: PayPal hasn't responded yet, and the board could hold out for a bump.

Visit Kalshi

JURASSIC PRICING
Observation: Market Strikes

Sotheby's auctioned "Gus," a 67-million-year-old, 61%-complete Tyrannosaurus rex skeleton, to an anonymous bidder for $50.1 million — the most expensive dinosaur fossil ever sold, topping the $44.6M stegosaurus Ken Griffin bought in 2024.

Kalshi ran a bracketed market on the sale price, with strikes from $23M up to $30M. Every single bracket resolved Yes — the hammer price nearly doubled the top listed strike. There wasn't even a $40M contract on the board.

The takeaway: Kalshi's strike ladders are guesses, not forecasts. On novelty markets like this, the true outcome can land far outside the listed range — treat the top strike as a floor worth questioning, not a ceiling.

View the Market

Sponsored

Turn Your Opinions Into Profit

Join millions of traders putting their knowledge to work on real-world events—from inflation to elections. Buy “Yes” or “No” shares and earn if you’re right.

No house. Peer-to-peer. Cash out anytime.

Get a free $10 to start. Claim it and start trading now.

Start Predicting Now

Trade responsibly.

Follow us:

X/Twitter: @watchPNN

YouTube: @PredictionNewsNetwork

Spotify: Prediction News Network Podcast

Disclaimer: Prediction News Network is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and viewers are responsible for complying with all applicable laws and platform rules in their jurisdiction.