Welcome to Prediction News Network — the SportsCenter meets NYTimes meets Bloomberg of the prediction markets. We're here to keep you updated on the news and help you figure out what’s going to happen before it happens.

We’re super bullish on this new asset class — not just because you can bet on it, but because it’s where real-world curiosity meets real-time context. You might catch a headline about NYC’s mayoral race or wonder if that new Benson Boone song will chart — but how do you find key context around real signal?

That’s what we’re here for: to give your hunches key context — and ultimately into correct predictions.

Here’s just a taste of what we’re beginning to roll out:

✅ Daily newsletter (Have a question or hot take? We read every reply)
🎮 Games section (Wordle-type games with a market spin)
📰 Articles on the latest markets (From Trump to Tarantino)
📊 Kalshi User Postings sentiment (Finding the Roaring Kitty of prediction markets)

Cash in on Culture. Let’s get into it 👇

Meta’s Talent Raid Sends Shockwaves — But Prediction Market Sees Only 25% Odds of a Closed-Source AI Model

The Backstory: Meta has poached eight AI researchers from OpenAI in recent weeks, according to reports from The Information, WSJ, and WIRED. This includes key contributors to OpenAI’s top-tier models like GPT-4.1. The hires follow Mark Zuckerberg’s aggressive push to build a “superintelligence” team, reportedly managed through a personal shortlist and a company-wide “Recruiting Party” strategy group.

Why It Matters: This escalating talent war could reshape the competitive balance in the AI race. While Meta has traditionally open-sourced its large language models — including Llama 2 and Llama 3 — the aggressive hiring strategy and ambitions for frontier models have traders asking: could Meta pivot to a closed-source release in 2025?

Market Price: As of Monday, traders on Kalshi give only a 25% chance that Meta will release a non–open source AI model this year. That’s down 50.5 points from its peak, signaling growing market skepticism about any imminent departure from Meta’s open-source strategy.

Forward-Looking Implications:

For now, the prediction markets are holding firm: Meta’s hiring spree may be bold, but it hasn't yet convinced traders that a closed-source AI model is imminent.

MLB Games: 8
WNBA Games: 0

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 PM ET
A pivotal AL East clash kicks off in Toronto with Carlos Rodón (2.92 ERA) dueling Max Scherzer in his third start back from injury. The Yankees hold a slim division lead, while the Jays are trying to claw back into the race behind a quietly surging offense.
Rodón’s strong form meets a Toronto lineup that rarely strikes out, while Scherzer’s durability remains a question. This series opener leans Under given both teams’ elite walk rates and disciplined approaches, and it carries major implications for AL Wild Card positioning.

Cincinnati Reds @ Boston Red Sox – 7:10 PM ET
Chase Burns, the Reds' electric top prospect, faces off with strikeout artist Garrett Crochet in a battle of elite stuff and emerging stars. Cincinnati rides into Fenway with six series wins in seven, while Boston has lost seven of eight amid offensive struggles.
With both lineups trending in opposite directions and dominant arms on the mound, expect a low-scoring affair. The Under 8.5 is well-supported by recent trends and pitcher profiles in what could be a breakout moment for Burns or a bounce-back for the Sox.

First MLB game starts at 6:35 pm ET

Senate Inches Toward Tax Bill Passage as Prediction Market Spikes to 86% Before July 2

The Backstory:
With the Senate locked in a high-stakes vote-a-rama session, lawmakers are racing to finalize President Trump’s massive “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” before the self-imposed July 4 deadline. The 940-page legislation includes sweeping tax cuts, aggressive Medicaid reforms, and sharp rollbacks to clean energy incentives—measures that have triggered fierce debate both inside the chamber and beyond.

Why It Matters:
This is the most consequential budget legislation of Trump’s second term—and its success or failure will shape U.S. fiscal policy, healthcare access, and energy strategy for years. With opposition brewing over deficit projections and Medicaid cuts, the final vote hangs in the balance and could influence both markets and electoral outcomes.

Market Price:
Kalshi traders now give an 86% chance the Senate will pass the bill by July 2, up 6 points in the last 24 hours. Contracts for passage before August 2 are trading at 96%, and before November 2 at 99%, suggesting that passage is seen as highly likely, if not imminent.

Forward-Looking Implications:

The Last of Us S3 Eyes 2027 – Market Leans 81% Toward Delayed Release

The Story:
With The Last of Us Season 2 recently wrapped and critical attention shifting to its bold narrative choices—particularly the early reveal of Abby’s motives—fans and industry watchers alike are looking ahead to Season 3. But when will it arrive? HBO's confirmation that the next season will star Kaitlyn Dever as Abby, with Bella Ramsey playing a reduced role, has only intensified speculation. Meanwhile, California just passed a landmark $750M annual film tax credit through 2035, aimed at keeping prestige projects like this within the state. Yet despite the favorable production climate, the actual timeline for The Last of Us Season 3 remains cloudy. Production cycles, cast availability, and HBO's new performance-based pay model all hint at a more measured rollout.

Market Reaction:
Prediction markets on Kalshi suggest strong skepticism about an early return. Traders give just a 20% chance that Season 3 airs before October 2026, and only 12% for a release before January 2027. The overwhelming consensus? An 81% chance that it arrives before April 2027, indicating confidence that while delays are expected, they won’t extend indefinitely.

🎬 Current prices reflect a cautious optimism: buyers are paying 81¢ for a "Yes" bet on a pre-April 2027 release—effectively valuing the next installment’s timeline in sync with high-prestige, slow-burn HBO dramas.

Powell’s July presser: 82% chance he uses the word “Confidence,” while “Anchor” sits at 28%. Markets are pricing in a stable Fed narrative.

Trump rally buzzword watch: Washington leads with 82%, with “Disgrace” (46%) and “Autopen” (43%) trailing. High odds suggest a nod to federal clashes.

Zohra Mamdani endorsement watch: Chuck Schumer holds a 56% chance of backing Mamdani, but momentum is slipping — down 20 points.

Eric Adams endorsement tracker: Michael Bloomberg leads at 46%, with Trump and Giuliani at 30% and 25% respectively. Wall Street bets on Bloomberg influence.

“Come take my free money. After banking $10K profits this month from 50 trades, I've decided to give some back to the community.” — @anon
Market: Will the national debt shrink this quarter?
The debt market has turned into a spiritual battleground between confidence and irony. While the odds favor “No,” one big winner flexed hard with a karmic offer: his freshly won gains, now up for grabs—if you believe the debt is actually shrinking 📉.

“Alligator Alcatraz right next to the airport for swift deportations LOL easy money” — @anon
Market: Deportations in Trump's first year? Yes · At least 500,000
A vivid mental image accompanies this prediction: a satirical take on immigration policy meets Vegas-style confidence. The poster’s enthusiasm for “Yes” aligns with a growing base betting on big ICE numbers under Trump 2.0.

“For the first time Joey, I'm asking you to put down the glizzy” — @anon
Market: Hot Dogs Eaten by Nathan's Contest Winner? No · 75 or more
Joey Chestnut’s yearly July 4th ritual is once again a betting crucible. This user pleads for moderation from the glizzy king himself—hoping he caps his count and gives “No” holders a patriotic payout.

Just like the New York Times, we’ve got quick-hit games — but with a predictive twist. Whether you’re matching emojis or hitting 21, they’re built to sharpen your instinct for patterns, probabilities, and plays. More coming soon…

👉 Emoji Match | 🃏 21 Blackjack