Someone just bet $25,200 against "Will Alex de Minaur win the de Minaur vs Paul: Semifinal match?" on Kalshi's 2026 ATP Hamburg Semifinal market. The trade placed 26,250 NO contracts at 96¢ each, totaling $25,200. The NO-side pressure moved the price from 6¢ down to 2¢, a 4-cent drop, as part of a broader wave of NO flow across 200 trades in roughly one minute. The YES side now sits at 2¢, implying roughly a 2% probability that de Minaur wins.
📊 Last 200 trades: 200 trades over 2 minutes (1:49 PM to 1:51 PM ET), NO volume leads $55,801 to $1,335, as price moved from 7¢ to 3¢ (-4¢). One $25,200 NO trade (26,250 contracts) accounts for 44% of the flow.
📊 Last 2,000 trades: 2,000 trades over 14 minutes (1:37 PM to 1:51 PM ET), NO volume leads $233,392 to $57,324, as price moved from 28¢ to 3¢ (-25¢).
📊 Past 12 hours: 5,000 trades over 32 minutes (1:19 PM to 1:51 PM ET), NO volume leads $538,312 to $151,744, as price moved from 43¢ to 3¢ (-40¢).
🐋 About Whale Watch
You do not have to watch Kalshi all day — we do. Prediction News Network tracks every big bet on the Kalshi prediction-market exchange in real time and flags the whales the moment they hit. Each one gets written up below so you can see exactly what was bet, at what price, and whether the market moved.
What counts as a whale? Sports & crypto: $25,000+ · Parlays: $8,000+ · Politics, culture, economy: $5,000+
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.