A taker stepped up on NO, taking the NO side of "France vs Spain: To Advance" in the France vs Spain market — the NO side wins if the outcome does not happen. The taker landed 50,000 NO contracts at 60¢ each, totaling $30,000. The book absorbed the size cleanly — across the last 200 trades (13 minutes), the price has held near 40¢ on the YES side. The market now prices YES at roughly 41%. The market closes August 11, 2026.
📊 Last 200 trades: 200 trades over 13 minutes (3:02 PM to 3:15 PM ET), NO volume leads $36,412 to $8,880, price holding near 40¢. One $30,000 NO trade (50,000 contracts) accounts for 66% of the flow.
📊 Last 2,000 trades: 2,000 trades over 2.6 hours (12:38 PM to 3:15 PM ET), flow roughly balanced — $59,904 YES vs $41,498 NO, price holding near 40¢. One $30,000 NO trade (50,000 contracts) accounts for 30% of the flow.
📊 Past 12 hours: 4,799 trades over 12.0 hours (3:15 AM to 3:15 PM ET), YES volume leads $145,619 to $50,261, price holding near 40¢.
🐋 About Whale Watch
You do not have to watch Kalshi all day — we do. Prediction News Network tracks every big bet on the Kalshi prediction-market exchange in real time and flags the whales the moment they hit. Each one gets written up below so you can see exactly what was bet, at what price, and whether the market moved.
What counts as a whale? Sports & crypto: $30,000+ · Parlays: $20,000+ · Politics, culture, economy: $10,000+
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.