A taker stepped up on YES, taking the YES side of Ken Paxton, 20%+ in the Texas Republican Senate runoff margin-of-victory market — the YES side wins if Paxton's margin lands between 20% and 100%. The trade covered 9,420 YES contracts at 100¢ each, totaling $9,401. With no resting liquidity in the book, the market absorbed the trade at the ceiling price with no slippage. The market currently sits at a last of 99.8¢, implying approximately 99% probability.
📊 Last 154 trades: 154 trades over 12.0 hours (9:31 PM to 9:31 AM ET), YES volume leads $113,317 to $126, price holding near 100¢. One $38,261 YES trade (38,453 contracts) accounts for 34% of the flow.
🐋 About Whale Watch
You do not have to watch Kalshi all day — we do. Prediction News Network tracks every big bet on the Kalshi prediction-market exchange in real time and flags the whales the moment they hit. Each one gets written up below so you can see exactly what was bet, at what price, and whether the market moved.
What counts as a whale? Sports & crypto: $25,000+ · Parlays: $8,000+ · Politics, culture, economy: $5,000+
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.