A taker stepped up on NO, taking the NO side of "Will the S&P 500 be above 7524.9999 on May 27, 2026 at 4pm EDT?" — the NO side wins if the outcome does NOT happen. 6,339 NO contracts at 96¢ each, totaling $6,085. With no resting liquidity and zero reported market depth, the book showed no absorption data, though the session saw price collapse 44¢ from 47¢ to 3¢ on strong NO flow. YES now sits at 3¢–4¢, implying roughly 4% probability.
📊 Last 200 trades: 200 trades over 19 minutes (3:40 PM to 3:59 PM ET), NO volume leads $18,855 to $2,178, as price moved from 48¢ to 3¢ (-45¢). One $6,086 NO trade (6,339 contracts) accounts for 29% of the flow.
📊 Last 959 trades: 959 trades over 11.7 hours (4:15 AM to 3:59 PM ET), NO volume leads $32,945 to $9,113, as price moved from 55¢ to 3¢ (-52¢).
🐋 About Whale Watch
You do not have to watch Kalshi all day — we do. Prediction News Network tracks every big bet on the Kalshi prediction-market exchange in real time and flags the whales the moment they hit. Each one gets written up below so you can see exactly what was bet, at what price, and whether the market moved.
What counts as a whale? Sports & crypto: $25,000+ · Parlays: $8,000+ · Politics, culture, economy: $5,000+
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
No takes. No predictions. Just the trade, the data, and the market reaction.
This is market commentary, not financial advice. Always verify contract terms and do your own research before placing any trades.