Apr 21, 2026
A $5,940 YES bet on US gas prices finishing above $3.80 — pricing the outcome at ~99% — landed in a market with no resting liquidity and zero prior volume.
A $16,800 YES bet on the S&P 500 clearing 7,090 by noon — locking in at 84¢ implied probability as price surged 31¢ in 31 minutes.
A $7,545 YES bet on the S&P 500 clearing 7,085 at noon — pricing it at ~86% — lands as the market surges 15¢ from session open.
A $9,746 YES bet on Kevin Warsh mentioning "Rate Cut" at his Senate Banking Committee hearing prices the outcome at ~99% with the market ticking up to 99¢.
A $6,694 YES bet on Warren uttering "Ethic / Ethical" at Warsh's confirmation hearing prices the outcome at ~99% — entering a book with zero resting liquidity.
Apr 19, 2026
A $5,723 NO bet against the S&P 500 closing above 7,199.9999 tomorrow prices the outcome at just 3% — executing cleanly into an empty book.
Apr 16, 2026
The S&P 500 "7,025 or above" Kalshi market sits at 56c after a $8,400 YES whale trade, with price down 20 cents from session highs.
![[Whale Watch] $8K YES on S&P 500 at 7,025 or Above at 56c (9:42:46 AM ET)](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,width=720,fit=scale-down,onerror=redirect/uploads/asset/file/2378790f-17f0-4e24-8fb6-385f07c9382b/xai-tmp-imgen-eb49af30-7c21-4e01-aa3c-c99e7ffe1651.jpeg?t=1776347008)