Archive

$27K NO on Will Sam Burns Win the PGA Championship? at 100¢ (11:22:01 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $26,694 bet against Sam Burns winning the PGA Championship prices the outcome at ~0% — the largest single trade in a market with no prior volume.

$29K YES on Will Alex Smalley win the PGA Championship? at 16¢ (11:12:17 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $29,383 YES bet on Alex Smalley winning the PGA Championship priced the outcome at ~16¢ — part of a 9-minute, $104K surge that nudged the market up 1¢.

$43K YES on Will Jannik Sinner win the ATP Rome? at 86¢ (10:55:22 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $42,513 YES bet on Jannik Sinner winning ATP Rome — pricing him at ~86% — landed cleanly as part of a dominant 46-minute YES surge.

$39K YES on Will Jannik Sinner win the ATP Rome? at 86¢ (10:37:48 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $38,699 YES bet on Jannik Sinner winning ATP Rome — pricing him at ~86% — landed as the session's largest trade in a market tilted 96% YES by volume.

SEC Baseball Bracket Set, but Kalshi Only Offers Basketball Odds

Tennessee grabbed the No. 10 seed in the 2026 SEC Baseball Tournament, but Kalshi has no baseball contract — here's the closest SEC championship market you can

Padres Upset Mariners 7-4 as Kalshi Odds Had San Diego as Underdogs

San Diego beat Seattle 7-4 as 41% underdogs on Kalshi. See how game, spread, and Tatis HR contracts resolved after a big night off Logan Gilbert

Denny Hamlin Tops Kalshi Odds for NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover

Denny Hamlin leads Kalshi's NASCAR All-Star Race market at 21 cents, nearly double Kyle Larson. Here's what the prediction market says before Dover's green flag

$25K NO on Will Patrick Reed win the PGA Championship? at 97¢ (10:13:04 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $25,116 bet against Patrick Reed winning the PGA Championship prices the outcome at ~3% — 26,000 NO contracts at 97¢ into a market with no resting liquidity.

Rousey Flattens Carano on Netflix, but Kalshi Odds Show the Real Story

Ronda Rousey stopped Gina Carano instantly on Netflix, but Kalshi prediction markets tell the deeper story — from broadcast mentions to UFC's competitive edge

Osaka Upsets Gauff at US Open — Prediction Market Prices Her 2026 Slam Odds Low

Naomi Osaka stunned Coco Gauff at the 2025 US Open — but Kalshi's 2026 Grand Slam contract prices her chances at just 3–6%. Here's what the market is watching

$44K YES on Who Will Win MVP? at 99¢ (9:50:34 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $44,000 conviction bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander winning NBA MVP locks in at 99¢ — pricing the outcome at ~99% implied probability.

McGregor vs. Holloway Officially Set — Kalshi Market Reacts

McGregor vs. Holloway is official for UFC 329. Kalshi's prediction market reflects near-certainty on the matchup.

$14K YES on yes Atlanta,yes Cleveland at 36¢ (9:42:25 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $14,201 bet on "yes Atlanta,yes Cleveland" — pricing the parlay at 36¢ implied probability — landed as the session's dominant trade, driving price 1¢ off session lows.

$31K NO on Will Chris Gotterup win the PGA Championship? at 98¢ (9:36:06 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $30,929 bet against Chris Gotterup winning the PGA Championship — pricing the outcome at ~2% — absorbed cleanly into a market with no resting liquidity.

$61K NO on Will Chris Gotterup win the PGA Championship? at 98¢ (9:36:06 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $60,553 bet against Chris Gotterup winning the PGA Championship — pricing the outcome at ~2% — landed in a market with no resting liquidity at 9:36 AM ET.

⚡ News Roundup: 163 Stories from 17 Outlets — Past 3h (as of 9:22 AM ET, May 17)

163 stories from 17 outlets in the past 3 hours — top headlines, a scannable headline list, and the full breakdown.

$5K NO on "How Many Launches Will SpaceX Have in 2026?" at 99¢ (9:10:47 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $5,336 bet against SpaceX exceeding 15 May launches — pricing YES at ~1% — landed in a market with zero liquidity and no resting orders.

$98K YES on Wolverhampton vs Fulham Winner? at 53¢ (9:05:05 AM ET · Prediction News Network)

A $98K bet on Fulham winning — pricing the outcome at ~53% — landed on a market with zero resting liquidity, nudging the price 1¢ to 53¢.

$26K NO on Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Winner? at 94¢ (8:55:55 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $26K bet against Punjab Kings winning their IPL clash with RCB — pricing the outcome at just ~7% — landed as NO flow drove the market from 14¢ to 6¢.

$9K NO on Cade Cunningham 5+ Threes, Duncan Robinson 5+ Threes, Donovan Mitchell 4+ Assists, Cade Cunningham 6+ Assists, Donovan Mitchell 20+ Points & James Harden 15+ Points at 99¢ (8:54:26 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $8,937 NO bet fires against a six-leg NBA combo parlay — pricing the full slate at under 1% — into a market with zero prior volume or open interest.

New Kalshi Markets: Top AI, St. Petersburg Election, Trump Pardon — Past 24 Hours (as of 8:30:53 AM ET, May 17)

94 new prediction markets launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours across 22 events.

New Kalshi Markets: Top AI, MD-01 Republican, Trump UFC 329 — Past 24 Hours (as of 3:38:39 PM ET, May 09)

45 new prediction markets launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours across 13 events.

New Kalshi Markets: EV Commodity Prices, Met Gala Attendance, FL-06 Nominee — Past 24 Hours (as of 11:14:26 AM ET, May 04)

34 new prediction markets launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours across 7 events.

Apple CEO Shakeup Has Kalshi Traders Pricing the Timeline

Apple's CEO transition is set for September 1. Kalshi markets are pricing the timeline accordingly.

Kalshi Prediction Market Locks In Mendoza as No. 1 NFL Pick

Every mock draft says Mendoza goes No. 1 to the Raiders. Kalshi contracts for rival picks sit at just 1 cent.

NFL Draft Prediction Markets: Long Shots Priced Near Zero on Kalshi

Every analyst says Mendoza goes No. 1. Kalshi long-shot alternatives sit at 1 cent.

$6K YES on Will average gas prices be above $3.80? at 99¢ (12:24:35 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $5,940 YES bet on US gas prices finishing above $3.80 — pricing the outcome at ~99% — landed in a market with no resting liquidity and zero prior volume.

$17K YES on Will the S&P 500 be above 7089.9999 on Apr 21, 2026 at 12pm EDT? at 84¢ (11:57:42 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $16,800 YES bet on the S&P 500 clearing 7,090 by noon — locking in at 84¢ implied probability as price surged 31¢ in 31 minutes.

$8K YES on Will the S&P 500 be above 7084.9999 on Apr 21, 2026 at 12pm EDT? at 86¢ (11:51:46 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $7,545 YES bet on the S&P 500 clearing 7,085 at noon — pricing it at ~86% — lands as the market surges 15¢ from session open.

$8K YES on Will Virginia redistricting referendum in Virginia pass? at 82¢ (11:46:05 AM ET · Whale Watch)

An $8,082 YES bet on Virginia's redistricting referendum — pricing passage at ~82% — landed as the market pushed 3¢ higher across a 49-minute session.

$10K YES on What will Kevin Warsh say during Senate Banking Committee Confirmation Hearing? at 99¢ (11:46:33 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $9,746 YES bet on Kevin Warsh mentioning "Rate Cut" at his Senate Banking Committee hearing prices the outcome at ~99% with the market ticking up to 99¢.

$7K YES on "Ethic / Ethical" — Elizabeth Warren Confirmation Hearing at 99¢ (11:30:26 AM ET · Whale Watch)

A $6,694 YES bet on Warren uttering "Ethic / Ethical" at Warsh's confirmation hearing prices the outcome at ~99% — entering a book with zero resting liquidity.

New Kalshi Markets: White House Visits, Trump's Cabinet, Americana Artist — Past 24 Hours (as of 11:30:26 AM ET, Apr 21)

404 new prediction markets launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours across 71 events.

$6K NO on Will the S&P 500 be above 7199.9999 on Apr 20, 2026 at 4pm EDT? at 97¢ (7:48:31 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $5,723 NO bet against the S&P 500 closing above 7,199.9999 tomorrow prices the outcome at just 3% — executing cleanly into an empty book.

FDA Fast-Tracks Psychedelics — Kalshi Market Prices Approval Odds

FDA issues first-ever priority vouchers for psychedelics. Kalshi traders price approval odds at roughly 50-50 before 2027.

Robots Beat Humans in Half-Marathon. Kalshi Bets on Mars Next.

A robot crushed the human half-marathon record. Kalshi traders are pricing a coin-flip on robots reaching Mars by 2035.

New Glenn Flies Again on Kalshi as Booster Lands Successfully

New Glenn launched April 19 and landed its booster. The Kalshi launch contract trades at 98 cents, nearing resolution.

Iran Nuclear Deal Odds on Kalshi as Ceasefire Nears Expiry

Kalshi traders see 67% odds of an Iran nuclear deal by September as ceasefire expiry and ship seizure raise stakes.

$42K YES on Game 1: Portland at San Antonio Winner? at 84¢ (7:26:04 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $41,696 YES bet on San Antonio winning Game 1 against Portland — pricing the outcome at ~84% — lands as the session's largest single trade in a strongly one-sided market.

$10K YES on "no Atlanta wins by over 1.5 runs, no Detroit wins by over 15.5 points" at 56¢ (7:09:48 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $9,699 YES bet on "no Atlanta wins by over 1.5 runs, no Detroit wins by over 15.5 points" locks in 56¢ implied odds on a two-leg esports combo closing April 22.

$295K YES on San Antonio wins by over 11.5 points? at 49¢ (6:59:34 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $295,313 YES bet on San Antonio winning by over 11.5 points — pricing the outcome at ~49% — nudged the market 1¢ in a session dominated by heavy YES flow.

New Kalshi Markets: Truflation EV Commodity Index — Past 24 Hours (as of 6:54:20 PM ET, Apr 19)

15 new prediction markets launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours across 1 event.

$35K YES on Game 1: Philadelphia at Boston Winner? at 88¢ (12:58:55 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $34,500 YES bet on Boston winning Game 1 against Philadelphia prices the outcome at ~88% — placed at 12:58:55 PM ET into a market absorbing strong one-sided flow.

$85K YES on Game 1: Philadelphia at Boston Winner? at 88¢ (12:41:47 PM ET · Whale Watch)

An $85,283 YES bet on Boston winning Game 1 against Philadelphia locks in 96,913 contracts at 88¢ — implying an 88% win probability with zero price movement.

New Kalshi Markets: Keir Starmer Out?, Kash Patel, Truflation EV Index — Past 24 Hours (as of 12:41:20 PM ET, Apr 19)

18 new prediction markets launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours across 3 events.

$38K YES on Boston Wins by Over 13.5 Points? at 48¢ (12:37:28 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $37,794 YES bet on Boston winning by over 13.5 points hit at 48¢, implying ~48% — the session's dominant side at 87% of contract flow.

$27K NO on Viktor Orbán – Hungary Prime Minister at 100¢ (12:15:13 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $27,349 bet against Viktor Orbán reclaiming Hungary's premiership — priced at ~0% — landed in a market with no competing liquidity and zero resting orders.

$7K NO on Will Marco Rubio Visit Venezuela Before May 1, 2026? at 100¢ (10:02:10 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $7,398 bet against Marco Rubio visiting Venezuela before May 1, 2026 — pricing the outcome at ~0% — landed in a market with zero open interest and no liquidity.

$31K NO on Who Will Win MVP? at 99¢ (9:52:39 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $31,183 bet against Nikola Jokic winning NBA MVP prices the outcome at ~1% — 31,498 NO contracts filled at 99¢ on a market with no resting liquidity.

$26K YES on San Diego vs Los Angeles A Winner? at 51¢ (9:16:42 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $25,500 YES bet on San Diego to win — pricing the outcome at ~51% — lands as the largest single trade in a 20-minute window of pure YES flow.

S&P 500 Surges to Record Above $7,100 as Nasdaq Posts Best Streak Since 1992

S&P 7,200 contract trades at 5¢ despite the index closing just 74 points away. Big Tech earnings week ahead.

$28K YES on Jai Herbert at 40¢ (8:40:11 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $27,806 bet on Jai Herbert to win his April 18 UFC bout prices the outcome at ~40% — with YES volume overwhelming NO across 54 minutes of trading.

$67K YES on Game 1: Phoenix at Oklahoma City Winner? at 90¢ (8:36:30 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $67,098 bet on Oklahoma City winning Game 1 against Phoenix locks in at 90¢ — implying ~90% — as YES volume floods the market at $178,045 to $319 NO.

$36K YES on Houston at Los Angeles L Winner? at 44¢ (8:34:09 PM ET · Whale Watch)

A $35,849 YES bet on the Lakers winning Game 1 — pricing the outcome at ~44% — landed in a one-sided flow window running 99% YES.

New Kalshi Markets: FISA Reauthorization, Best AI, Keir Starmer Out — Past 24 Hours (as of 8:06:54 PM ET, Apr 18)

40 new prediction markets launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours across 6 events.

[Whale Watch] $8K YES on S&P 500 at 7,025 or Above at 56c (9:42:46 AM ET)

The S&P 500 "7,025 or above" Kalshi market sits at 56c after a $8,400 YES whale trade, with price down 20 cents from session highs.

US-Iran Nuclear Talks Stall — Kalshi Bettors Still See a Deal

US-Iran talks ended without a deal, but Kalshi bettors still price a nuclear agreement before September at 63 cents.

⚡ News Roundup — 202 Stories (as of 9:59 PM ET, Apr 15)

202 stories from 15 sources in the past 3 hours.

[Whale Watch] $30K NO on Sahith Theegala RBC Heritage Winner at 99c (5:20:59 PM ET)

A $29,610 NO bet against Sahith Theegala in the RBC Heritage Winner market moved the price zero cents on Kalshi.

[Whale Watch] $26K YES on Cincinnati (SF vs CIN Winner) at 51c (5:03:11 PM ET)

Cincinnati winner market on Kalshi draws $25,500 YES whale at 51c, with YES volume at $63,051 across 200 trades in 38 minutes.

[Whale Watch] $26K YES on Juan Bautista Torres to Win vs Sakamoto at 71c (4:33:57 PM ET)

Juan Bautista Torres draws $26K YES bet at 71c on Kalshi, with 131-trade flow running 97% YES across 13 hours.

Kalshi Bettors Give US-Iran Nuclear Deal Coin-Flip Odds

Islamabad nuclear talks collapsed. Kalshi bettors price a US-Iran deal before September at 60 cents.

New Kalshi Markets — Past 24 Hours (as of 4:10 PM ET, Apr 15)

Recap: 216 new prediction markets launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours across 33 events.

News Roundup — 311 Stories (as of 4:07 PM ET, Apr 15)

311 stories from 21 sources in the past 3 hours.

New Kalshi Markets — Past 24 Hours (as of 6:01 PM ET, Apr 14)

Recap: 258 new prediction markets launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours across 34 events.

NBA Play-In, Alix Earle, Trump - Midday Market Edge

It Pays to Read Our News: Profit from the latest news and how to cash in on culture with prediction markets.

Paramount's Deal, CA Governor, The Masters - News & Market Edge

It Pays to Read Our News: Profit from the latest news and how to cash in on culture with prediction markets.

The Masters, Anthropic vs DOD, New Meta Model - Today's Market Edge

It Pays to Read Our News: Profit from the latest news and how to cash in on culture with prediction markets.

New Kalshi Markets — Past 24 Hours (as of 5:40 PM ET, Apr 08)

Recap: 380 new prediction markets launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours across 44 events.

Claude Mythos, Airline Hikes, Foldable iPhone - Midday Market Edge

It Pays to Read Our News: Profit from the latest news and how to cash in on culture with prediction markets.

Ye Concert, Anthropic Run Rate, GA-14 Runoff - Midday Market Edge:

It Pays to Read Our News: Profit from the latest news and how to cash in on culture with prediction markets.

New Kalshi Markets — Past 24 Hours (as of 9:53 PM ET, Apr 06)

Recap: 507 new prediction markets launched on Kalshi in the past 24 hours across 88 events.

Midday Market Edge: NCAAB Championship, Claude Limits, The Masters

It Pays to Read Our News: The latest news and how to profit with prediction markets.

Midday Market Edge: Final Four, Bondi Fired, OpenAI Buys TBPN

It Pays to Read Our News: The latest news and how to profit with prediction markets.

Midday Market Edge: SpaceX IPO, Bitcoin Cracked, World Cup

It Pays to Read Our News: The latest news and how to profit with prediction markets.

Midday Market Edge: Artemis, OpenAI, SCOTUS

It Pays to Read Our News: The latest news and how to profit with prediction markets.

Midday Market Edge: Tiger Woods Opioids, Trump on UK/France, Final Four WBB

It Pays to Read Our News: The latest news and how to profit with prediction markets.

Midday Market Edge: Two Ships Cross Hormuz, Claude Mythos, Tiger Woods

It Pays to Read Our News: The latest news and how to profit from it with prediction markets.

Midday Market Edge: Oil Prices, Fed Meeting, March Madness

It Pays to Read Our News: The latest news impacting prediction markets.

Distilled News - Wednesday, March 11th

It Pays to Read Our News: The latest top news impacting prediction markets.

Distilled News — Tuesday, March 10

It Pays to Read Our News: Distilled from top newsletters, everything that impacts prediction markets.

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Anthropic March Update

Market: KXTOPAI

Latest on US-Israel Strikes on Iran / Iran War - Kalshi Market for Strait of Hormuz

Market: KXCLOSEHORMUZ

Pro Baseball Worst Record? Bet on MLB's Worst Record

Market: KXMLBWORSTRECORD

NFL Draft Preview: Players Drafted Top 3 in 2026? NFL Draft Analysis

Market: KXNFLDRAFTTOP

LeBron James's next team? LeBron Trade Rumors

Market: KXNEXTTEAMNBA

Who will Conor McGregor fight next?

Market: KXMCGREGORFIGHTNEXT

MrBeast's Million Dollar Challenge: What It Is and When It Might End

Market: KXMRBEASTSALESFORCECHALLENGE

Who will be on the cover of Madden NFL 27?

Market: KXMEDIACOVERMADDEN

Who will release a new album this year? Ariana Grande Review

Market: KXALBUMRELEASE

Will the Citrini scenario happen? Kalshi Market Analysis

Market: KXCITRINI

Who will leave the Trump administration this year? Kash Patel Review

Market: KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Market: KXALIENS-27

LeBron James Trade Watch: Will the Lakers Move On From Their Superstar?

💵 Paramount Acquisition Latest + Monday Night Football

Coinbase Acquires The Clearing Company; It pays to read the news with PNN

🎬 Sunday Night Football + 28 Years Later + NBA Sunday

It pays to read the news with PNN

🏈 Football Saturday & Domer Check-in + NFL Draft

DraftKings announces prediction markets app; it pays to read the news with PNN

🏈 Tua Benched + SpaceX Bank + Thursday Night Football

Coinbase announces prediction markets; it pays to read the news with PNN

🍑 Sydney Sweeney Latest + NFL MVP + NBA Wednesday

Robinhood Announces Prediction Market Parlays; It pays to read the news with PNN

💔Trump on Reiner + New Fed Chair + NBA Cup Finals

"Robinhood Presents: YES/NO" at 9 pm ET tonight; It pays to read the news with PNN

🤖 AI Regulation + Avatar Review + Monday Night Football

It pays to read the news with PNN - Check out our YouTube Channel

🏛️ MyPillow for Governor + Myles Garrett + Steph Curry Returns

Coinbase Ready to Launch Prediction Markets; It pays to read the news with PNN

🏀 OKC Thunder Streak + Michigan Football HC + Thursday Night Football

It pays to read the news with PNN; gain insight to make informed predictions.

🍎 New Apple Leadership + CFB Swing Trading + NBA Cup

It pays to read the news with PNN; gain insight to make informed predictions.

🚗 Waymo Clarification + Philip Rivers + Bosa's New Girlfriend

It pays to read the news with PNN; gain insight to make informed predictions.

Oscar Odds: What Prediction Markets Expect

How Oscar prediction markets turn Best Picture buzz into real-time odds—and what those prices say about the next Academy Awards.

Music Charts Prediction Markets

How fans and traders bet on Billboard, Spotify, and streaming hits—and what music charts prediction markets really say about the next No. 1 song or album.

Trump Policy Prediction Markets: What’s Priced In?

How prediction markets are pricing Trump’s tariffs, immigration plans, and foreign-policy moves—and what those odds actually say about the future.

Supreme Court Decision Markets Explained

How traders bet on Supreme Court cases, how these markets are structured and settled, and what their odds really tell you about the law.

U.S. Election Odds: What the Markets Predict

A plain-English look at current 2028 U.S. election odds, how prediction markets set them, and what those prices really tell you.

How U.S. Election Prediction Markets Work

A clear, beginner-friendly guide to U.S. election prediction markets, how they price odds on the presidency and Congress, and what those prices really mean.

💵 Paramount Hostile Bid + Marty Supreme + Monday Night Football

It pays to read the news with PNN; gain insight to make informed predictions.

💔 Alix Earle Breakup + SpaceX IPO + Sunday Night Football

DraftKings Now Closer To Prediction Market Launch; Gain insight into markets to make informed predictions.

☁️ Cloudflare Outage & College Football Previews

Gain insight into markets to make informed predictions.

🎬 Sydney Sweeney's New Movie & CFB Championship Friday

Gain insight into markets to make informed predictions.

🏀 Giannis Trade Rumors, Pete Hegseth Drama & Thursday Night Football

Fanatics launches prediction market in 24 states; gain insight to make informed predictions.

🐍 Paul Rudd Meta-Comedy & Best Picture Nominations

Polymarket relaunching in the US today; gain insight to make informed predictions.

What Is Kalshi? How the First Regulated U.S. Prediction Market Works and What Traders Should Know

A clear guide to Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated event contracts, how the platform works, and the key risks and opportunities for traders.

How to Trade on Polymarket: Step-by-Step Instructions, Strategy Tips, and Market Examples

Learn how to fund your account, place your first YES/NO trade, use limit orders, and apply simple strategies to trade smarter on Polymarket.

Is Polymarket Safe and Legal? Breaking Down How the Platform Operates, Settles Markets, and Protects Users

Understand Polymarket’s legal status, regulatory history, on-chain settlement process, and the main ways the platform tries to protect (and sometimes fails to protect) its users.